Fun

News Feed - 2023-09-13 05:09:59

Marcel Pechman3 hours agoBitcoin derivatives data suggests BTC price holds the current rangeBTC investor sentiment turns increasingly bullish after this week’s quick rebound from a sharp price correction.1101 Total views10 Total sharesListen to article 0:00Market AnalysisJoin us on social networksBitcoin experienced a 5% increase after testing the $25,000 support level on Sept. 11. However, this breakout rally doesn’t necessarily indicate a victory for bulls. To put today’s price action in perspective, Bitcoin (BTC) has witnessed a 15% decline since July. In contrast, the S&P 500 index and gold have maintained relatively stable positions during this period. 


This underperformance demonstrates that Bitcoin has struggled to gain momentum, despite significant catalysts such as MicroStrategy"s plan to acquire an additional $750 million worth of BTC and the multiple requests for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from trillion-dollar asset management firms. Still, according to Bitcoin derivatives, bulls are confident that $25,000 marked a bottom and opened room for further price gains.Bitcoin/USD vs. gold and S&P 500 futures, 12-hour time frame. Source: TradingView


Some argue that Bitcoin’s primary drivers for 2024 are still in play, specifically the prospects of a spot ETF and the reduction in new supply following the April 2024 halving. Additionally, some of the cryptocurrency markets’ immediate risks have diminished following the United States Securities and Exchange Commission experiencing partial losses in three separate cases, involving Grayscale, Ripple and the decentralized exchange Uniswap.


On the other hand, bears have their own set of advantages, including the ongoing legal cases against leading exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. Moreover, there is the troubled financial situation of Digital Currency Group after one of its subsidiaries declared bankruptcy in January 2023. The group is burdened with debts exceeding $3.5 billion, potentially leading to the sale of funds managed by Grayscale, including the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.


A look at derivatives metrics will better explain how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.Bitcoin futures and options metrics held steady despite the correction


Bitcoin monthly futures typically trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers are asking for more money to delay settlement. As a result, BTC futures contracts should typically trade at a 5 to 10% annualized premium — a situation known as contango, which is not unique to crypto markets.Bitcoin 1-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas


It’s worth noting that the demand for leveraged BTC long and short positions through futures contracts did not have a significant impact on the drop below the $25,000 mark on Sept. 11. However, the BTC futures premium continues to hover below the 5% neutral threshold. This metric remains in the neutral-to-bearish range, indicating a lack of demand for leveraged long positions.


To gauge market sentiment further, it’s helpful to look at the options markets, as the 25% delta skew can assess whether the retest of the $25,000 level has made investors more optimistic. In short, if traders expect a drop in Bitcoin’s price, the skew metric will rise above 7%, while periods of excitement typically have a -7% skew.Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas


The situation underwent a notable shift on Sept. 11, as the 25% delta skew metric — which previously indicated a 9% premium on protective put options, suggesting investors were expecting a correction — has now leveled off at zero. This indicates balanced pricing between call and put options, implying equal odds for both bullish and bearish price movements.Macroeconomic uncertainty favors bears, but BTC bulls remain confident


Given the uncertainty on the macroeconomic front, particularly with the upcoming release of the Consumer Price Index report on Sept. 13 and retail sales data on Sept. 14, it’s likely that crypto traders will be cautious and prefer a “return to the mean." In this context, the mean represents the predominant trading range of $25,500 to $26,200 observed over the past couple of weeks.


However, from a bullish perspective, the fact that derivatives markets held up during the dip below $25,000 is a promising sign. In other words, if bears had significant conviction, one would expect a stronger appetite for put options and a negative BTC futures premium, known as “backwardation."


Ultimately, both bulls and bears have significant triggers that could influence the price of Bitcoin, but predicting the timing of events such as court decisions and ETF rulings is challenging. This dual uncertainty likely explains why derivatives metrics have remained resilient, as both sides exercise caution to avoid excessive exposure.


This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.# Bitcoin# Cryptocurrencies# Bitcoin Price# SEC# Markets# Derivatives# Inflation# Bitcoin Futures# Grayscale# Market AnalysisAdd reactionAdd reactionRead moreHow to track and report crypto transactions for tax purposes10 years later, still no Bitcoin ETF — but who cares?Ripple is staring down an opportunity to fix its closed system

News Feed

Brayden Lindrea7 hours agoVanEck, ARK filings officially start clock for spot Ethereum ETFs: AnalystBloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart expects more spot Ethereum ETFs to be filed in the coming days.2939 Total views36 T
XRP Price Bullishness Continues, Analyst Shoots For $1.9 With Next Leg-Up
Este artículo también está disponible en español. The XRP price is  consolidating just below the $1.4 mark,but the technical structure continues to show bullish strength
Market Outlook: Bitcoin’s Inverse Head and Shoulders, Covid-19 Fears Decline, CME Futures Gaps
Market Outlook: Bitcoin"s Inverse Head and Shoulders, Covid-19 Fears Decline, CME Futures GapsDigital currency markets have had a few lackluster days, as the entire crypto market va
Bitcoin needs to hold above $80,000 to keep mining profitable post-halving
Prashant Jha13 hours agoBitcoin needs to hold above $80,000 to keep mining profitable post-halvingFor miners to remain profitable and continue their mining operations, the BTC price must rise above $80,000 post-halving.1
No $200K Bitcoin? Popular Trader Explains Why It’s Unlikely This Decade
Este artículo también está disponible en español. Peter Brandt, a seasoned trader, has dismissed optimistic predictions in the wake of Bitcoin’s recent increase to
The HUMAN App Delivers Real-World Utility to HMT and the HUMAN Ecosystem
The HUMAN App Delivers Real-World Utility to HMT and the HUMAN Ecosystem sponsored HUMAN Protocol has launched on the Ethereum Mainnet. To complement this launch
Brayden Lindrea17 minutes agoAmazon launches ‘Q’ — a ChatGPT competitor purpose-built for businessEmployees in HR, legal, product management, design, manufacturing and operations departments will benefit from Q, sa
Solana Hits New Milestone: Wallets Holding 0.1+ SOL Reach Record High
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and pu
Ankr expands Bitcoin liquid staking tokens to AI blockchain Talus
Zhiyuan Sun4 hours agoAnkr expands Bitcoin liquid staking tokens to AI blockchain TalusThe Bitcoin LSTs can be used to power the Talus blockchain"s virtual artificial intelligence assistants.5845 Total views25 Total shar
Central Bank of Ukraine Seeks to Hire Blockchain Developer
Central Bank of Ukraine Seeks to Hire Blockchain Developer National Bank of Ukraine is hiring a blockchain expert who will likely support its digital currency project. The vacancy
Resurfaced clip shows Trump’s VP pick slamming Gensler’s approach to crypto
Tom Mitchelhill7 hours agoResurfaced clip shows Trump’s VP pick slamming Gensler’s approach to cryptoDonald Trump’s newly announced running mate, JD Vance, once referred to SEC Chair Gary Gensler as “the worst pe
MEXC’s Changing for You | The 1st Exchange to Launch a Zero Maker Fee Event for Futures Orders
MEXC"s Changing for You | The 1st Exchange to Launch a Zero Maker Fee Event for Futures Orders press release PRESS RELEASE. In September of this year, blockchain media outlet, Coint