Bitcoin price retraces 30 days ahead of halving in historical pattern

Robert D. Knight10 hours agoBitcoin price retraces 30 days ahead of halving in historical patternBitcoin price has historically retraced ahead of previous Bitcoin halvings, but when will it bounce back?3278 Total views8 Total sharesListen to article 0:00Follow upOwn this piece of crypto historyCollect this article as NFTJoin us on social networksWith just a month to go until the Bitcoin (BTC) halving, BTC price has retraced despite fresh capital inflows inducing a new all-time high earlier this month. 

Even so, industry figures are largely bullish and tell Cointelegraph the retracement is not yet a cause for concern.

Bitcoin has enjoyed significant price growth in 2024. On Jan. 1, the price of Bitcoin was $42,208. On March 14, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $73,737. That high is something BTC has not been able to sustain on the 30-day countdown clock.One-week Bitcoin price chart. Source: Cointelegraph

Samson Mow, who has been predicting serious upward price momentum for some time, is confident Bitcoin will soon go on to surpass its all-time high. The CEO of Jan3 — a technology company focused on expanding Bitcoin access worldwide — told Cointelegraph he predicts the price will still soar before the halving.

Bitcoin is “likely to reach $100,000 before the halving,” said Mow. “There’s just not enough coins to meet the voracious demand from the [exchange-traded funds] ETFs, which devour around 7,000 coins a day.”Further Bitcoin price dip?

Mow may predict a significant price rise over the next 30 days, but others say the dip may go deeper. One scenario does not preclude the other. However, it is possible that both a greater dip and a greater high could occur.

On X, Ran Neuner told his followers a 20–30% dip “would be completely normal and healthy” during a bull market.A 20%/30% dip would be completely normal and healthy in a bull market,specially a month before the halving.

We could go as low as $55k/$60k easily and that would be a crazy buying opportunity.

I’m not rushing to buy anything yet…— Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) March 15, 2024

Similarly, Danny Chong, co-founder of decentralized asset tracker Tranchess, told Cointelegraph the direction of travel could be downward.

“After the Bitcoin halving, instead of a continued upward trajectory, we may experience a temporary downturn. However, the overall market sentiment can be expected to remain bullish,” he said, “This optimism is linked to the broader dynamics with ETF-related development. The interest and growth in ETFs have become a significant factor in maintaining a positive market outlook.”

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Chong further stated that a pre-halving price dip was simply a matter of historical precedent.“In each of these cycles, the halving effect on the Bitcoin price was similar and displayed a pattern: a substantial rally leading up to the halving, followed by a brief correction and period of consolidation before the major bull run and blow-off top. The peak occurred approximately 18 months after the halving each time.”

Chong said that this “highly simplified” analysis still held true.Robust support for BTC price

Even if a dip continues, the longer-term direction of travel for the original cryptocurrency is likely to be up, industry observers say.

Danny Lim, core contributor at decentralized exchange MarginX, told Cointelegraph, “This upcoming event is set apart by the involvement of institutional investors driving even higher demand against this constrained supply, likely to provide strong support for Bitcoin’s price during potential retracements.”

Zac Cheah, co-founder and CEO of Pundi X, a blockchain-based point-of-sale solution, also believes this halving is unique due to market conditions.

Just 30 days before the event, Cheah told Cointelegraph that the 2024 halving was different because “Bitcoin’s floor price enjoys robust support due to the heightened demand from institutional investors.”“The competition between giants like MicroStrategy and BlackRock, vying for the title of top Bitcoin holders, not only fuels bullish sentiments but also amplifies transaction activity, leading to greater profits for Bitcoin miners.”

With the United States Federal Reserve considering interest rate cuts, the positive case for Bitcoin only gets stronger.

“Historically, Bitcoin has thrived in lower interest rate environments. Considering these positive factors, there is substantial anticipation around Bitcoin’s performance in the upcoming halving cycle, with forecasts indicating a potential surge to as high as $100,000,” Cheah said.

Cheah’s $100,000 prediction matches similar comments from Mow. Whether it can achieve those lofty heights with the halving a mere month away, all eyes are on Bitcoin.Could Bitcoin decouple from the broader crypto market?

With the rest of the market seemingly dragged up or down by Bitcoin’s considerable gravity well, Cointelegraph asked Mow whether crypto would ride Bitcoin’s coattails all the way to the top or whether BTC would decouple from the rest of the market.

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“Bitcoin will decouple from ‘crypto’ simply because we have massive tailwinds from the ETFs. We now have $500 million to $1 billion in inflows every trading day. ‘Crypto’ simply does not have that vast pool of capital flowing in. So while ‘crypto’ coins can track Bitcoin for a time because they’re small and have low liquidity, it’s inevitable they lose steam and are left behind,” said Mow.

“Or the founders/insiders simply decide to stop propping up the prices and buy Bitcoin — which is all too common, and retail buyers are left holding the bag,” he said.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.# Bitcoin# Bitcoin Price# Adoption# Halving# Bitcoin HalvingAdd reactionAdd reactionRead morePrice analysis 3/20: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, DOGE, AVAX, SHIB, TONBitcoin, Ethereum rebound but still show ‘overheated signals’ — K33 ResearchIs the Bitcoin halving priced in? Analysts compare BTC price targets vs previous halvings