William Suberg14 hours agoHighest monthly close ever — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekBitcoin sets multiple records at the end of Q1 as anticipation grows for a return to BTC price discovery.5531 Total views5 Total sharesListen to article 0:00Markets NewsOwn this piece of crypto historyCollect this article as NFTJoin us on social networksBitcoin (BTC) starts a new week, month and quarter of 2024 with several new records — can the bull market continue from here?
BTC price action made history on March 31 as the first quarter of 2024 ended with the highest close ever seen.
Old resistance is not giving up without a fight; however, a battle between buyers and sellers is keeping old all-time highs from 2021 firmly on the table.
Thus, price discovery remains elusive, with Bitcoin needing a push to $74,000 to knock out the bulk of latecomer sell-side liquidity.
The stage is set for potentially volatile moves as Q2 gets underway.
Adding to the mixture is the classic macroeconomic data element, with nonfarm payrolls due from the United States at the end of the week.
This will be preceded by fresh commentary from Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve. Last week, Bitcoin appeared to respond positively to Powell, who kept the prospect of interest rate cuts in 2024 in focus.
As Bitcoin itself stays higher for longer, seasoned hodlers are increasingly taking profit, going against the influx of institutional capital from the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Cointelegraph takes a look at these issues and others in the weekly summary of what is apt to impact BTC price action in the coming days.BTC pric clinches record weekly, monthly, quarterly close
Bitcoin — to all intents and purposes — delivered for bulls at the end of Q1.
At just below $70,300, the March 31 weekly, monthly and quarterly close became its highest in history.
A predictable retracement followed; however, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showing local lows of $68,900 coming hours later.BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
On short timeframes, BTC/USD thus remains caught in a range that was already familiar from last month. $69,000 — its old all-time high from 2021 — continues to act as a market focus.
For popular trader Skew, caution is warranted until clearer trend signals arrive.
“Going to be more observant here before jumping into positions,” he wrote in one of his latest posts on X.“So far 4H trend is still intact, will be looking for the market to maintain this with sufficient spot buying & perp bid for momentum.”
Skew also flagged the first Wall Street open as significant, marking the return of ETF flows.
“Biggest HTF level for now is $69K,” he confirmed about higher timeframes alongside an illustrative chart.“Monthly/Weekly open will be important later.”BTC/USD chart with support levels. Source: Skew/X
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital was more upbeat about the candle closes.
Bitcoin, he argued, could easily challenge the top of its range in order to confirm it as longer-term support before using this as a basis for fresh upside.
“Bitcoin has kickstarted the breakout process,” he told X followers on April 1.“Weekly Close above the Range High is the 1st step. And if $BTC needs to dip into the RH to successfully retest it as new support before continuing higher... That would be the 2nd step to fully confirming the breakout.”BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, the low-timeframe trend revolves around two clear lines in the sand: $67,000 and $71,700.
“If either of the two happens, probably direction is chosen,” he predicted.“I think we’ll have one final ATH test before halving happens.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/XPowell, unemployment lead U.S. macro diary
A fresh appearance from Fed Chair Powell forms one highlight of the upcoming U.S. macro week.
Powell will deliver prepared remarks on April 3, joining several other senior Fed officials throughout the week.
Risk assets continue to stay optimistic around long-term economic policy, with some form of interest rate cuts all but guaranteed as 2024 progresses.
Last week, Powell said that even recent “hot” inflation reports should not form the basis for an overly hawkish stance on the economy and that the Fed would take a more balanced approach in timing cuts.
This week’s data, meanwhile, centers on nonfarm payrolls — a release that recently contributed to BTC price volatility — due on April 5.
“US employment data due on Friday. And just like prior US data points / FOMC... an opportunity to pick up some cheap tokens could be ahead,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro commented in part of an X post on the week ahead.“Currently, the market is on par with the Fed at 3 cuts priced for the end of the year. As with inflation data, employment data will move markets on any significant miss.”
Tedtalksmacro explained that “weak” job numbers would boost the odds of an earlier rate cut and thus fuel risk-asset strength.
“It’s all about jobs data and Fed speakers are we officially kick off the second quarter,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter agreed in its own weekly outlook.Source: The Kobeissi LetterBitcoin long-term holders become active sellers
As Bitcoin sets new records on the charts, long-term holders are wasting little time in taking profit.
What was first a trickle is now gaining pace, on-chain data shows — Bitcoin’s “diamond hands” are no longer on the sidelines.
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode revealed a fresh peak in realized profits. These refer to coins moving on-chain from two investor cohorts: short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs).
STHs are entities hodling coins for less than 155 days,