Fun

Economists Predict Worst Recession Ever for India Amid Lockdown Extension

News Feed - 2020-05-19 04:05:17

Economists Predict Worst Recession Ever for India Amid Lockdown Extension


Economists have predicted that India will face its worst recession ever as the country announced another nationwide lockdown extension. India’s economy is forecasted to contract 45% in the second quarter following the Rs 20 lakh crore coronavirus relief stimulus package which some economists call “aimless” and a “lost opportunity.”Economists Predict Worst Recession Ever for India


Two leading global investment management firms, Goldman Sachs and Bernstein, have predicted that “India will experience its deepest recession ever,” according to reports. The forecasts came as the Indian government extended the country’s nationwide lockdown until May 31 while easing some restrictions to boost economic activity during the coronavirus crisis. India’s lockdown was introduced on March 25 and has been extended several times.


Goldman Sachs India Securities’ chief economist Prachi Mishra and chief Asia economist Andrew Tilton estimated in a report dated May 17 that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will contract by an annualized 45% in the second quarter compared to the prior quarter. The firm previously forecasted a slump of 20% for the country with approximately 1.4 billion people. Goldman Sachs’ estimates imply that India’s real GDP will plunge by 5% in the 2021 fiscal year, deeper than any other recession the country has ever experienced. The economists explained:The deeper trough in our Q2 forecasts reflects the extremely poor economic data we have received so far for March and April, and the continued lockdown measures, which are among the most stringent across the world.


Meanwhile, analysts at Bernstein have forecasted an even sharper contraction of 7% for India. As for the recovery, Goldman Sachs’ economists expect a rebound of 20%, stronger than previously predicted. Subsequent quarterly growth estimates were left unchanged at 14% and 6.5%.U.S.-based investment companies Goldman Sachs and Bernstein have predicted the worst recession ever for India amid another round of nationwide lockdown extension and an “aimless” Rs 20 lakh crore stimulus package.Indian Government’s Reform Measures Criticized


The predictions by Goldman Sachs and Bernstein followed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s multi-day briefings on the country’s Rs 20 lakh crore ($265 billion) economic stimulus package, equivalent to about 10% of India’s GDP. The last measures of this coronavirus relief package were unveiled on Sunday.


However, some people have pointed out that the stimulus package includes measures already announced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), such as the liquidity measures. Bloombergquint commented, “While the headline number is huge, the actual government spending remains small with the RBI’s earlier measures forming the biggest part.” Bernstein analysts Venugopal Garre, Ankit Agrawal, and Ranjeet Jaiswal were quoted by the New Indian Express publication as saying:While the package started on important aspects but the need to announce measures that add up to this top-down number made the entire package aimless, with several generic announcements which should ideally have been a part of a normal economic agenda.


While the Bernstein analysts applauded a few measures in the stimulus package, they concluded: “Overall, we see it as a lost opportunity.” The analysts elaborated: “The focus should have been on urban, corporates, consumption, infra and impacted sectors, but it was on rural and strange-end markets such as space program. Rural is in control, as farm incomes are protected (good harvest season and a good start to summer crop sowing). Yet, several measures (in the form of loans) were announced for Agri, some of which are already existing programs.”


In addition, Goldman Sachs’ economists believe that the Indian government’s structural reform measures “are more medium-term in nature, and we therefore do not expect these to have an immediate impact on reviving growth.”


What do you think about these predictions for India? Let us know in the comments section below.Venezuelans Can Now Use Bitcoin to Pay for Goods at 20,000 PoS TerminalsNEWS | 11 hours agoBitcoin.com"s Mining Video Censored: The Tale of Youtube"s Blatant Censorship and PropagandaNEWS | 17 hours agoTags in this storyindia coronavirus, india crisis, india economic crash, india goldman sachs, india great recession, india lockdown extended, india lockdown extension, india predictions, india recession, indian recession, indis worst recession


Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki CommonsPurchase Bitcoin without visiting a cryptocurrency exchange. Buy BTC and BCH here.Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.Read disclaimer Show comments

News Feed

Chinese Indexes Company Launches Hang Seng Metaverse Index
Chinese Indexes Company Launches Hang Seng Metaverse Index A Chinese indexes company, Hang Seng Indexes, has launched a new index which tracks the performance of metaverse-related
Jack Dorsey says Bitcoin will be worth ‘at least a million’ by 2030
Martin Young4 hours agoJack Dorsey says Bitcoin will be worth ‘at least a million’ by 2030“I do think it hits that number and goes beyond,” said the Twitter co-founder on his million-dollar Bitcoin prediction.330
Why Bitcoin Wins No Matter The Outcome Of Trump’s Trade War
Este artículo también está disponible en español. In an escalation of global economic friction, President Trump’s imposed tariffs have roiled financial markets this wee
Crypto Economy Loses 3% Overnight, Bitcoin Slides Below $46K, Analyst Says ‘Downward Force Still Strong’
Crypto Economy Loses 3% Overnight, Bitcoin Slides Below $46K, Analyst Says "Downward Force Still Strong" The crypto economy has slid in value 2.9% during the last 24 hours and bitc
Prosecutor General’s Office Wants to See ‘Cryptocurrency’ in Russian Law
Prosecutor General’s Office Wants to See ‘Cryptocurrency’ in Russian Law The Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation has insisted that the term “c
Ana Paula Pereira6 hours agoWhat is going on with Sam Bankman-Fried’s defense?Former FTX CEO Sam "SBF" Bankman-Fried has been on trial since Oct. 3, but his legal counsel has yet to present a compelling narra
Aurus Disrupts the Gold Industry – Today Its Ecosystem Lists at a Value of $75m
Aurus Disrupts the Gold Industry – Today Its Ecosystem Lists at a Value of $75mWith the US dollar facing headwinds, notably the coronavirus pandemic and an upcoming presidential e
US Develops Cryptocurrency Intelligence Program Targeting P2P Sites, Forums, Darknet Markets
US Develops Cryptocurrency Intelligence Program Targeting P2P Sites, Forums, Darknet Markets The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has revealed a cryptocurrency intelligence p
William Suberg9 hours agoBTC price risks new sub-$29K dip as Binance fears test Bitcoin bullsBitcoin is not done with short-term BTC price downside, analysis predicts, with overall volatility still among its lowest-ever
Elon Musk Drops Epstein ‘Peanut’ Bomb — PNUT Coin Explodes 10%
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and pu
Price analysis 3/8: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, DOGE, SHIB, AVAX, DOT
Rakesh Upadhyay2 hours agoPrice analysis 3/8: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, DOGE, SHIB, AVAX, DOTBitcoin hit a new all-time high, but the failure to sustain the breakout suggests that bears remain active at higher levels
Luxury Retailer Tiffany & Co. Announces Jeweled Cryptopunk Pendants Tied to NFTs
Luxury Retailer Tiffany & Co. Announces Jeweled Cryptopunk Pendants Tied to NFTs The luxury jewelry and specialty retailer Tiffany & Co. announced the firm is planning to sell 250