William Suberg59 minutes ago$66K BTC price now ‘critical’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekBitcoin flirts with the lower end of the stubborn BTC price trading range as traders strain to see signs of change.823 Total viewsListen to article 0:00Markets NewsOwn this piece of crypto historyCollect this article as NFTJoin us on social networksBitcoin starts a new week in an altogether different mood to much of June, trailing one-month lows.
Bitcoin (BTC) price action has taken a turn for the worse after challenging $70,000 resistance multiple times. What could be next?
As a stubborn trading range continues to dictate Bitcoin market moves, traders and analysts are considering what the immediate future has in store — and whether bulls or bears will be in control.
A stream of United States macroeconomic data and associated Federal Reserve commentary appeared to take its toll on Bitcoin last week, with the largest cryptocurrency shedding nearly 5% and briefly dipping below $65,000.
While fewer macro triggers are due this week, employment figures may still surprise as the U.S. inflation picture delivers mixed signals to risk assets.
Many are thus playing a game of wait-and-see when it comes to BTC/USD — until the range shows signs of shifting, there is little to do but wait.
Under the hood, meanwhile, Bitcoin miners are adjusting to the new post-halving reality as a “capitulation” phase continues to play out. Network fundamentals are cooling, with mining difficulty set to drop by around 1.3% this week.
With all-time highs seemingly out of reach for the time being, Cointelegraph takes a closer look at the main BTC price talking points for market observers and participants.BTC price dices with support failure
A bruising week for Bitcoin bulls finally ended with BTC/USD down 4.3% at the weekly close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
After hitting one-month lows, bulls managed a modest turnaround to bring the market focus back to $66,000 — a level that remains in play as of June 17.BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
While it could have been worse, the “red” week offered little hope to those seeking a definitive resistance/support flip at the key levels of $69,000 and higher.
“Bitcoin remains red on 3-day Predator. Still no significant sign of a trend shift just yet,” trading suite DecenTrader told subscribers on X about the latest signals from its proprietary trading indicators.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows the extent to which $66,000 is now key in terms of order book liquidity, with $67,300 fulfilling a similar role as resistance.BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Thus, a narrow corridor has evolved, with TradFi unable to shift the status quo during the week’s first Asia trading session.
“Sideways price action is - generally speaking - not a bad thing. A lack of patience is,” popular trader Jelle continued in his latest X analysis.“Pretty sure this will resolve up, just like all the other times.”BTC/USD chart. Source: Jelle
Jelle described the weekend’s movements as “typical” for Bitcoin.
“Bullish divergence is locked in, and price is trying to hold above $66,300. Time for bulls to wake up, and push this back into the range,” he added about relative strength index (RSI) values.
Others also sought to find a note of optimism amid the otherwise lackluster BTC price action now in place for several weeks. Among them was commentator Matthew Hyland, who noted that Bitcoin’s 10-week simple moving average (SMA) remained intact through the recent dip.BTC/USD 1-day chart with 10-week SMA. Source: TradingViewJobless claims highlight cool macro week
After the deluge of macroeconomic data in June, the coming week offers risk-asset traders some welcome relief.
Only U.S. jobless claims form a potential catalyst for volatility across crypto, with the sector showing itself to be sensitive to unemployment surprises throughout 2024.
The Juneteenth holiday gives the entire U.S. market a break on June 19, with the jobless claims due a day later.
Commenting on the week ahead, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter alluded to the impact of ongoing data prints on market expectations for a significant loosening in U.S. financial policy.
“Massive swings in Fed expectations continue to be incredibly profitable to trade this year,” it summarized about the fluctuating bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year — a key bullish impetus for Bitcoin and altcoins.Fed target rate probabilities as of June 17 (screenshot). Source: CME Group
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool show that the Fed’s September meeting remains the earliest likely date for cuts to begin. The next meeting in July currently only has around 10% odds of resulting in a cut.
“For me, the takeaway from last week is that the data is clearly pointing towards a shift to more accommodative monetary policy—and potentially sooner rather than later,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro wrote in part of an X thread at the weekend.“Reinforcing my view that dips are buying opportunities for risk assets like cryptocurrencies + stocks.”BTC/USD chart. Source: Tedtalksmacro
Tedtalksmacro agreed that $66,000 was the key level to hold in the face of any macro surprises.
“For the upcoming week it"s critical that Bitcoin maintains it"s support at $66,000 USD - if broken, sellers could take a stronghold on the market and force quick liquidations out of the bulls,” he warned.Bitcoin miner capitulation in full swing
Bitcoin network fundamentals continue to take stock of recent gains as miners face a fresh period of economic upheaval.
Current estimates from BTC.com foresee a roughly 1.3% drop in mining difficulty at the next automated readjustment on June 20.Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com
This underscores an overall mixed landscape since April’s block subsidy halving, with miners continuing to adjust to the new economic reality.
As Cointelegraph reported, a “capitulation” phase is currently underway on hashrate, with the 30-day moving average below its 60-day equivalent. This, as shown by the hash ribbons metric, is indicative of a pre-breakout BTC price phase.
“Following the recent Bitcoin halving, we have observed nearly a month of challenging conditions for miners,” Kripto Mevismi, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in one of its Quicktake market updates last week.
Hash ribbons analysis suggested that miners themselves “do not appear to have the power to significantly influence the price” during the current capitulation.
“The analysis of hash ribbons and the current market dynamics suggest that despite the challenges faced by miners post-halving, the Bitcoin market remains strong. The sustained demand is a positive indicator of market resilience and strength, highlighting that the current price stability is supported by more than just miner activity,” Kripto Mevismi concluded.“This period demonstrates the market"s ability to maintain a solid foundation even amidst potential adversities, indicating a strong and healthy Bitcoin ecosystem.”Bitcoin Hash Ribbons indicator. Source: LookIntoBitcoin
Hash ribbons’ last capitulation signal came in August 2023, when BTC/USD dropped to $25,000.BTC wallet numbers erase bear market wipeout
Much has been made of Bitcoin whale behavior in recent weeks, with sustained accumulation ignoring changing short-term price narratives.
This has led to an assumption that large-volume traders overwhelmingly expect BTC price upside to reemerge, providing easy gains in the coming weeks to months.
Meanwhile, smaller-volume wallets are experiencing a renaissance of their own.
The latest data from research firm Santiment shows that wallets with 10 BTC or more now number 16.16 million — the most since June 2022. This reflects 82% of the BTC supply.
“Much has changed since then, including a rise in Bitcoin"s market value by +226%,” it noted in a dedicated X post on June 17.
Santiment went on to reference the fall of exchange FTX at the end of 2022, which triggered the Bitcoin bear market capitulation and subsequent bullish comeback at the start of 2023.
“Many believe that FTX was successfully suppressing cryptocurrency prices in the 2nd half of 2022,” it noted.“But since the exchange’s collapse in November, 2022, there has been an undeniable semblance of correlation between 10+ BTC wallet holdings and the coin’s overall market value.”Bitcoin wallet numbers data. Source: SantimentBitcoin ETF coins offer “strong support indicator”
Whales also figure within the overall hodling trend for 2024.
Related: ETH, TON, UNI, and XMR could rally if Bitcoin clears $68,000
Coins bought before the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January have broadly stayed dormant since.
As shown by CryptoQuant contributor Mignolet, that practice has turned their owners into longer-term holders rather than mere speculators.
“Right before the ETF approval, holders sold their Bitcoin (blue box). However, in the green box, the short-term holders accumulated during the consolidation phase have transitioned to long-term holders of 3-6 months and are continuously being accumulated without being sold (green box),” a Quicktake post from the weekend explained.“Since most of these holdings belong to whales, this could serve as a strong support indicator.”Bitcoin sum coin age distribution (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
As Cointelegraph continues to report, Bitcoin’s short-term holder entities — those holding a given amount of BTC for up to 155 days — represent a key support trendline during the current bull market.
Their aggregate cost basis is currently just above $62,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.# Bitcoin# Bitcoin Price# MarketsAdd reaction