Fun

Celestia (TIA) Set For Major Breakout? Top OTC Exec Warns Of Supply Shock

News Feed - 2024-10-31 08:10:11

Este artículo también está disponible en español.


In an analysis shared on X, Taran Sabharwal, CEO of Stix—a leading OTC trading platform specializing in liquidity solutions for private crypto transactions—provided insights into the upcoming unlock dynamics of the Celestia (TIA) token scheduled for October 31, 2024. His assessment suggests that the market may be underestimating the potential impact on TIA’s price action heading into November. Why Celestia (TIA) Could Be A Buy


“TIA – an OTC story,” Sabharwal began. “We used on-chain data (via @celenium_io API) to judge exactly how the unlock dynamics may shape TIA’s PA going into Nov. The results are in the table above. We’ve summarized that a total of 92.3M TIA will be liquid post unlock, which would act as the upper bound of overall spot selling pressure.”


Interestingly, this figure accounts for less than 50% of the total cliff unlocks, suggesting that the actual sell pressure may be only half of what the market has been anticipating. Sabharwal highlighted that the real increase in circulating supply compared to the current supply indicates a 41.8% dilution. Related Reading Celestia (TIA) Leads Crypto Market With 16% Surge, Will It Hit $7 This Month? 2 weeks ago


A significant factor in this dynamic is the activity of OTC buyers who acquired large amounts of the initial unlock and hedged on perpetual futures, causing open interest to surge in recent months. “We expect many of these shorts to continue winding down, partially negating the spot-selling pressure,” he explained. This unwinding could serve as a bullish signal for spot buyers due to the potential reset in funding rates.


Sabharwal’s analysis included several key assumptions. OTC round buyers possess an 11 million TIA cliff unlock, included in the non-staked token category since these tokens originated from treasury wallets not tagged on the blockchain explorer. His team mapped a total of 292 vesting wallets but acknowledged some gaps, which were also included in the non-staked category.


Reflecting on TIA’s OTC history on Stix, Sabharwal observed that Celestia has been one of the most actively traded assets in the OTC market this cycle. Early in the cycle, it offered an attractive opportunity for directional buyers, while sellers were eager to realize large unrealized profits without expecting an imminentbull market in Q3 2023.


He continued: “In Q1 2024, the bull had matured and TIA rallied to $20+. OTC activity was minimal here as sellers didn’t want to take larger discounts (40+%) and buyers didn’t want to bid higher than the $8.5 ceiling. We saw almost no activity as sellers were ‘feeling’ rich and wanted to stay risk-on, despite having the opportunity to realize 100-800x on their investments.” Related Reading Celestia Plans For 1 GB Blocks For Scaling: Why Are TIA Holders Worried? 1 month ago


The dynamics shifted when TIA fell below $5. This was around the time when the Celestia Foundation started raising its OTC round of $100M at $3. “The vesting for buyers was the same as those of private investors—33% unlock on Oct 31 2024 (<2 months from the round) and a 12-month linear unlock,” Sabharwal noted.


During the third and fourth quarters of 2024, aggressive OTC trading activity resumed, with sellers offloading various positions. Stix alone facilitated approximately $60 million in TIA volume since July, suggesting that total trading volume could exceed $80 million across all liquidity channels, assuming Stix holds a 75% market share in the OTC space.


Summing up his analysis, Sabharwal concluded: “TLDR: Shorts will keep unwinding into the unlock and funding rates may reset to 0 or positive. People who missed the 9th October unstaking deadline may also have unstaked during October, causing further spot supply (ready to be sold) going into November. Either way, the supply shock is massive and it’s been the most broadcasted unlock of this cycle. That, coupled with suppressing OTC discounts, may create a lot of action for the coin.”


Renowned crypto analyst Will Clemente also weighed in on the developments via X: “Great piece on $TIA OTC activity by Taran from Stix. TLDR: OTC discount to spot in the private market has compressed over the last year, showing growing demand into the unlock. Stix alone has done $60mm in TIA OTC volume since July.”


Clemente added his perspective on the potential market impact: “I think this BTC price action has further slid the probability of Thursday’s TIA unlock being bearish towards ‘no’. 6 months of reaccumulation after 80% drawdown, ton of OTC volume, most widely telegraphed unlock in crypto history, 9 figs short, BTC nearing ATHs. Am long rn.”


At press time, TIA traded at $5.00. TIA price needs to break the red resistance area, 1-day chart | Source: TIAUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

News Feed

Bitcoin Could See ‘One Last Shakeout’ In November, Here Are The Levels To Watch
Este artículo también está disponible en español. Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded a remarkable surge in the past 14 days, nearing the $70,000 mark earlier this week. However,
Bitcoin Hashrate Climbs 128% Over 83 Days, Network’s Mystery Miners Disappear
Bitcoin Hashrate Climbs 128% Over 83 Days, Network"s Mystery Miners Disappear Bitcoin’s hashrate has been climbing higher during the last two weeks, hitting 174 exahash per
Mila Kunis’ ‘Stoner Cats’ NFT Sale Pulls in $8M — Animated Series Can Only Be Watched by NFT Holders
Mila Kunis" "Stoner Cats" NFT Sale Pulls in $8M — Animated Series Can Only Be Watched by NFT Holders A new non-fungible token (NFT) project crafted by the Amer
3 reasons why Ethereum price continues to underperform against BTC in 2024
Nancy Lubale4 hours ago3 reasons why Ethereum price continues to underperform against BTC in 2024Ethereum price underperforms BTC on a number of metrics as investors await spot ETH ETF to start trading.1143 Total views3
Bitcoin ETFs See Historic Surge – Institutions Go Bullish On BTC With $1.38 Billion Record Inflows
Este artículo también está disponible en español. Yesterday, Bitcoin had one of its most bullish days in history, skyrocketing past its all-time high to reach $76,990. Th
Bitcoin’s 5% Drop in Value Puts Pressure on BTC Mining Operations and Older ASIC Rigs
Bitcoin"s 5% Drop in Value Puts Pressure on BTC Mining Operations and Older ASIC RigsDuring the last seven days, the price of bitcoin has dropped 4.8% from a high of $9,700 on June
Not buying Bitcoin early was the ‘biggest mistake I’ve ever made’ — Trevor Noah
Martin Young3 hours agoNot buying Bitcoin early was the ‘biggest mistake I’ve ever made’ — Trevor NoahDuring a tech conference in Qatar, the South African comedian was asked to talk about the biggest mistake he
Judith BannermanQuist6 hours agoCFTC issues $54M default judgment against trader in crypto fraud schemeAs a result of the judgment, the defendant is also now prohibited from engaging in any trading activities within mark
SEC, CFTC, FinCEN Warn Crypto Industry to Follow US Banking Laws
The heads of three U.S. financial regulators warned the cryptocurrency industry to abide by banking laws in a joint statement published Friday. The statement, signed by Commodity Fu
Elisha Owusu Akyaw8 hours agoIs the SEC a bad cop? CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger breaks down crypto regulation in the USWeisberger believes the structure of the Securities and Exchange Commission needs to change but tha
Report: Bitcoin Bull Run and Rising Awareness of Digital Currencies Led to a 20% Increase in Crypto Related Lawsuits in China
Report: Bitcoin Bull Run and Rising Awareness of Digital Currencies Led to a 20% Increase in Crypto Related Lawsuits in China A report from China says as many as
Onyx protocol exploited a second time for $3.8M via known bug
Christopher Roark10 hours agoOnyx protocol exploited a second time for $3.8M via known bugThe decentralized finance app lost nearly $4 million thanks to an interaction between an old bug and a new input validation vulner