Fun

How To Trade Bitcoin During The US Election, Expert Reveals

News Feed - 2024-11-02 06:11:41

Este artículo también está disponible en español.


As the United States approaches its presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, the Bitcoin market is bracing for significant volatility. In the lead-up to the election, Bitcoin surged to a high of $73,620 on Tuesday, likely reflecting investor optimism over a potential victory for former President Donald Trump. However, by Friday, the BTC price experienced a correction, dipping to $68,830 amid a more cautious, risk-off sentiment as the election looms. How To Trade Bitcoin During US Election


Alex Krüger, an Argentine economist and renowned crypto analyst, shared his strategic framework on how to trade Bitcoin during the US election period via his X account. Krüger outlined scenarios based on possible election outcomes, highlighting that a Trump victory could propel Bitcoin to $90,000 by year-end with a 55% probability, while a win for Vice President Kamala Harris might see Bitcoin settle around $65,000 with a 45% probability. He emphasized that timing will matter: “Expect the move to be fast if Trump wins. Markets rarely waits for laggards on binary events not largely front-run.”


Krüger also noted that the current Bitcoin price, which he anticipated to be in the $65k-68k range leading up to election night, had “overshot” in alignment with the probabilities favoring aTrump victory. He pointed out the uncertainty surrounding the election results, primarily hinging on the Pennsylvania vote count, which could delay the announcement of a clear winner. Related Reading Bitcoin Set To Gain If Trump Wins, JPMorgan Cites ‘Debasement Trade’ As Key Factor 19 hours ago


“It largely depends on the Pennsylvania count, if it is lopsided or not. It could be as early as Tuesday evening EST, or days later if the count is very tight. The sooner we get clarity, the easier it gets,” Krüger stated.


Regarding market sentiment, Krüger expressed a bullish outlook on equities regardless of the election outcome, unless there is an unexpected “Blue sweep” where Democrats secure both the presidency and congressional majorities. He explained that “equities drag Bitcoin around.”


In his personal investment strategy, Krüger revealed that he is positioned with long spots in Bitcoin and Nvidia, and plans to go long on Solana (SOL) if Trump wins. With this, Krüger is likely betting on a spot Solana Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approval in the United States.


Krüger’s analysis suggests that the market has partially priced in a Trump victory, anticipating that a Trump administration could bolster the Bitcoin price. “Markets have partially priced a Trump victory in. We (the market, in aggregate) expect Trump to drive crypto prices higher due to increased regulatory clarity and implementation of pro-crypto policies,” the analyst wrote. Related Reading Can Bitcoin Hit $200,000 Only If The Dollar Falls? Bitwise CIO Answers 2 days ago


Additionally, he expects that Trump’s focus on increased government spending would stimulate short-term economic growth, positively impacting equities—a sector closely linked to Bitcoin’s performance.


Conversely, a Harris victory would likely represent a continuation of existing policies, barring a significant Democratic sweep. Krüger concluded: “Based on betting markets and various election forecasting models, Trump’s probabilities are in the 50% to 63% range. Ergo, it’s “safe” to assume a GOP victory is far from being fully priced in. Such a contested setup is common going into elections. That is why I do not expect ‘sell the news’.”


At press time, BTC traded at $70,402. Bitcoin price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

News Feed

Recession or Prolonged Inflation: The Fed Must Decide Between Two Policy Mistakes, Says Economist
Recession or Prolonged Inflation: The Fed Must Decide Between Two Policy Mistakes, Says Economist Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian says the Federal Reserve will have
Bitcoin traders hope bottom is in after BTC price bounces 9% from lows
William Suberg10 hours agoBitcoin traders hope bottom is in after BTC price bounces 9% from lowsBTC price action takes a break from endless downside to revisit $58,500, but Bitcoin bulls struggle to hold higher ground.83
Cointelegraph Innovation Circle8 hours agoCrypto leaders: 12 practical tips for effectively working with regulatorsOnly crypto leaders hold the knowledge and enthusiasm to help guide responsible regulations that don’t
CleanSpark mined 445 Bitcoin in June, surpasses hashrate target
Brayden Lindrea4 hours agoCleanSpark mined 445 Bitcoin in June, surpasses hashrate targetCleanSpark CEO Zach Bradford said his firm has set its sights on increasing future hashrate instead of branching out to alternative
Venezuelan Migrants Are Using Bitcoin for Remittances, But There’s a Catch
In 2018, Deimer González packed his college diploma, clothes and a mobile wallet with 1.5 BTC in savings and left Venezuela. What unfolded throughout 2019 offers a microcosm for Venezuelan bitcoin users around the wor
PBOC Reveals Central Bank Digital Currency Usage at Beijing Winter Olympics — 2 Million Digital Yuan per Day
PBOC Reveals Central Bank Digital Currency Usage at Beijing Winter Olympics — 2 Million Digital Yuan per Day The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the Chinese central bank, h
Indian Bank Blocks Use of RBI’s Remittance System for Crypto While Government Delays Bill
Indian Bank Blocks Use of RBI"s Remittance System for Crypto While Government Delays Bill Major Indian bank ICICI has asked customers not to use the Reserve Bank
Derek Andersen6 hours agoEthics watchdog rats out Circle for links to Tron in letter to Sens. Warren, BrownThe Campaign for Accountability wanted to let the anti-crypto senators know that the threat of terrorist financin
Bitcoin, Ethereum Technical Analysis: BTC Rebounds Following Bullish Comments From Elon Musk
Bitcoin, Ethereum Technical Analysis: BTC Rebounds Following Bullish Comments From Elon Musk Bitcoin started the week trading below $17,000, as volatility in the cryptocurrency spa
Bitcoin Millionaire Tim Draper Advises Startups to Keep Bitcoin as a Hedge Against a ‘Domino’ Run on the Banks
Bitcoin Millionaire Tim Draper Advises Startups to Keep Bitcoin as a Hedge Against a "Domino" Run on the Banks Tim Draper, a venture capitalist and bitcoin millionaire, has include
Robinhood Launches Recurring Crypto Buy Feature to ‘Help Smooth Out Price Swings’
Robinhood Launches Recurring Crypto Buy Feature to "Help Smooth Out Price Swings" On Wednesday, the stock and cryptocurrency trading platform Robinhood rolled out recurring crypto
13,000 BTC Moved in 20 Months — 2010 Mystery Miner Transfers Another String of 20 Decade-Old Block Rewards
13,000 BTC Moved in 20 Months — 2010 Mystery Miner Transfers Another String of 20 Decade-Old Block Rewards Two days ago on November 10, a mystery whale transferred 20 block rewar