Crypto Pundit Makes Case For Bitcoin Price At $260,000, But This Invalidation Level Threatens The Rally

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A prominent crypto pundit has outlined a compelling case for the Bitcoin price outlook, predicting a surge to a target as high as $260,000 this bull cycle. However, a critical invalidation levelstands in the way of this bullish scenario, threatening Bitcoin’s projected rally if breached. 

On March 26, Gert van Lagen, a well-known crypto analyst on the X social media platform, predictedthat the Bitcoin price could hit a bullish target between $200,000 and $300,000. The analyst’s chart suggests that Bitcoin’s price actionin the past few years has closely followed a classic market cycle structure, moving through the Accumulation, Redistribution, Re-accumulation, and Distribution phases.  Bitcoin Price Eyes New ATH Above $260,000 According to Lagen, Bitcoin has successfully broken out of a seven-month re-accumulation phase, signaling the potential start of a powerful uptrend. Between late 2022 and early 2023, the cryptocurrency experienced an accumulation phasein which smart money entered the market at low prices when BTC had bottomed out. This was followed by a strong rally that led to a rapid price appreciation to new highs.  Related Reading Global M2 Vs. Bitcoin Shows Bullishness As Analyst Sets ‘Blast Off’ Date, Here’s When 5 days ago

After consolidating for seven months in mid-2023 – early 2024, Bitcoin formed a range, allowing the market to absorb supply before another price breakout. Notably, this trend continued in 2025, with BTC breaking out of a seven-month re-accumulation phase. Source: Gert Van Lagen on X

Based on the trajectory of Lagen’s price chart, Bitcoin’s next leg up is a sharp rise to $240,000, followed by a brief correction before rallying to a price peakbetween $290,000 and $300,000. After hitting this ATH, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin will decline and undergo a period of choppy trading, experiencing price fluctuations between $220,000 and $260,000. 

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s projected rise to an ATHand the following sideways trading are expected to occur during its distribution phase, which is typically characterized by increased sell-offs and market volatility. Once BTC experiences a final surge to $260,000, Lagen predicts a price crashtoward $148,000 – $136,000, marking the possible end of the bull rally and the start of the bear market.  Key Invalidation Level Threatening BTC’s Rally

Lagen’s optimistic price forecastfor Bitcoin is being threatened by a key invalidation level, which could halt the cryptocurrency’s potential surge to $200,000 – $300,000. Although Bitcoin’s bullish structureremains intact, the analyst warns that a weekly close below the 40-week LSMA would invalidate its breakout.  Related Reading Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Net Position Turns Green For The First Time In 2025 1 week ago

As of writing, the Bitcoin price is consolidatingabove this key invalidation level at $73,900. As long as it holds above this level, Lagen believes that its bullish trajectory will be sustained. However, a drop below $73,900, which already represents a 15% decline from BTC’s current market price, could postpone the projected surge or cancel it altogether. BTC trading at $87,183 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com