Fun

Crypto Analyst: 33% Chance Bitcoin Already Topped—Brace For $52,000

News Feed - 2025-04-10 12:04:05

Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. Este artículo también está disponible en español.


Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has reduced his Bitcoin exposure, warning followers that while the bull cycle remains intact, the probability that Bitcoin has already peaked for this four-year cycle has materially increased. In an update published April 8th, Loukas detailed the rationale behind selling one-third of his model portfolio at $79,500, citing both technical deterioration and a worsening macroeconomic backdrop.


“I still think we have the ability to push later in the year or even early next year to a high in the four-year cycle,” Loukas said. However, he emphasized that recent price action and structural breakdowns in the charts demanded a more cautious approach. “I’m not calling for this to be thetop in the cycle,” he clarified, “but I’m saying that the probability of it being a top has increased… from that low risk possibility to something that is maybe more like a third—you know, a 33% chance.” Bitcoin Bull In Doubt


The portfolio shift, which brings the model’s Bitcoin allocation down to 27 BTC with the remainder in cash, is not a call for imminent collapse but a hedge against rising downside risk. Loukas stressed that his decision was not reactive or impulsive but rather aligned with a long-standing strategy informed by the cyclical structure of Bitcoin’s price history. He referred back to his February video where he warned that if the next weekly cycle failed to hold support and took out recent lows, it would signal deeper trouble. “In the third year of a bull market, you don’t want to be seeing significant lows like the one we had in February… and then to be taken out. It doesn’t happen often.” Related Reading Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns 19 hours ago


Loukas pointed to a series of trendline violations and critical support breaks on the weekly and monthly charts. While acknowledging that technical breaks are not, in isolation, reliable predictors of cycle tops, he argued they add weight to the thesis that the market may be transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle. “We are now… 29 months into the cycle,” he said, “so it’s deep enough now where I just need to take this a little more seriously.”


Although the analyst remains bullish long-term—highlighting strong price performance, ETF inflows, and institutional adoption—he warned that macroeconomic headwinds could accelerate short-term downside. “There’s a serious macro issue going on here with tariffs, trade, and the economy,” Loukas noted. “We haven’t seen an impact or disruption like this to world trade in decades… that could potentially… become a full-blown global recession.”


In such a scenario, the idea that Bitcoin could fully decouple from risk assets remains, in Loukas’ view, unrealistic. “With ETFs being so new, and Saylor and others—the institutional or TradFi involvement in Bitcoin—leads me to believe that a full decoupling… is probably unrealistic.”


The analyst outlined a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin declines toward the $52,000 level—a roughly 50% retracement from its January highs. While stressing that this is not a forecast but a contingency, Loukas stated that such a move could present a strong reentry opportunity. “If by some chance that Bitcoin over the next month to three months makes its way down to say the $54,000 level, I would be thinking at that point a 50% retracement is enough… where I would want to redeploy some risk.” Related Reading Bitcoin Plunges To $74,000 As Trump Announces New Tariffs 1 day ago


He added that any significant rally followed by a lower low would, in his view, confirm a four-year cycle top. “A big move up and then a subsequent move down… is pretty much sort of the final nail in the coffin.”


Still, Loukas hasn’t ruled out higher highs later this year. He floated the possibility of an atypical “super right-translated cycle,” in which Bitcoin peaks well beyond the standard month-35 window—perhaps around month 41 or 42—followed by a sharp but brief correction and then a continuation into the next four-year cycle. This more speculative scenario would involve a complex double or even triple-pump structure, echoing the 2013 and 2021 cycle patterns.


For now, the model portfolio remains two-thirds invested in Bitcoin, and Loukas reiterated that he would prefer a bullish outcome even at the cost of reduced exposure. “I’d much prefer to ride two-thirds of a position up to $150K, $200K, or even more, than I would to say, ‘Well, Bitcoin’s back down to $48K or lower.’”


Ultimately, Loukas framed the move not as bearish capitulation but as prudent risk management. “I am essentially an allocator of risk and capital… and as you get deeper and deeper into the cycle, the higher you go, the risk/reward of course changes.”


At press time, BTC traded at $77,743. BTC hovers above crucial support | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

News Feed

Failed House candidate and partner of ex-FTX exec starts crypto think tank
Turner Wright7 hours agoFailed House candidate and partner of ex-FTX exec starts crypto think tankContributions to Michelle Bond’s 2022 congressional campaign were part of a criminal investigation into her partner, Rya
LBank Exchange Will List THN (Throne) on September 22, 2021
LBank Exchange Will List THN (Throne) on September 22, 2021 press release PRESS RELEASE. INTERNET CITY, DUBAI – LBank Exchange, a global digital asset trading platform, is pr
Fintech Firm Centbee Graduates From South African Regulatory Sandbox
Fintech Firm Centbee Graduates From South African Regulatory Sandbox Fintech firm Centbee recently announced it has successfully completed the testing of its cross-border remittanc
Shiba Inu Breaks Out On A 73% Weekly Rampage, Eyes Over 300% Target
Este artículo también está disponible en español. A lot of limelight has been seen recently on Shiba Inu (SHIB) making it one of the hottest topics to consider in the cry
Why Solana will prevail despite Ethereum ETFs
Christos Makridis & Connor O"Shea9 hours agoWhy Solana will prevail despite Ethereum ETFsEthereum may have spot ETFs in a few months, but Solana has superior speed and UX design. Its market dominance is inevitable.21
Vested crypto tokens worth over $3B to be unlocked in May
Ezra Reguerra11 hours agoVested crypto tokens worth over $3B to be unlocked in MaySui, Pyth Network, Avalanche, Arbitrum and Aptos are set to release vested crypto tokens in May, according to data tracker Token Unlocks.3
Digital Currency Group Suspends Dividends Amid Regulatory Trouble With Subsidiary Genesis
Digital Currency Group Suspends Dividends Amid Regulatory Trouble With Subsidiary Genesis According to a shareholders’ letter from Digital Currency Group (DCG) viewed by fina
Zhiyuan Sun6 hours agoHTX exchange loses $13.6M in hot wallet hack: ReportThe incident affected the greater HTX, Tron and BitTorrent ecosystem.6053 Total views5 Total sharesListen to article 0:00NewsJoin us on social net
Rich Dad Poor Dad’s Robert Kiyosaki Says He’s Waiting for Bitcoin to Test $1,100 to Buy More
Rich Dad Poor Dad"s Robert Kiyosaki Says He"s Waiting for Bitcoin to Test $1,100 to Buy More The famous author of the best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, says he&
Brazilian Burger King Customers Can Now Purchase Meat-Flavored Dog Biscuits With Dogecoin
Brazilian Burger King Customers Can Now Purchase Meat-Flavored Dog Biscuits With Dogecoin According to regional reports, the Burger King franchise in Brazil has
US government transfers 300 ETH — Arkham Intelligence
Vince Quill3 hours agoUS government transfers 300 ETH — Arkham IntelligenceThe 300 Ethereum coins were transferred from a wallet identified as “Noman Seleem Seized Funds” by the onchain analytics firm.2133 Total vi
Three Fronts in the Global Digital Currency Wars
Jeremy Allaire is co-founder, CEO and chairman of Circle, a global financial services company that provides a platform for individuals, institutions and entrepreneurs to build businesses, invest and raise capital with op