Market update.

I was watching this market update, and I feel like it really validated a lot of what I've been thinking about the current economic climate and the future of Bitcoin. The overall message is simple: we need to prepare because the cycle is playing out, and the next few months look incredibly bullish for risk assets, especially Bitcoin.

The core argument that resonated with me is that this isn't just a Bitcoin cycle—it's a dollar cycle. With the U.S. dollar entering a weakening phase, it creates more fuel for the Bitcoin rally. We've already broken out of a beautiful pattern on the charts, marking higher lows and finally moving into what they call "price discovery." I honestly don't know what's going to happen short-term, but I’m focused on the bigger picture.

My target remains high, echoing many bank predictions of $150k to $250k for Bitcoin this year. I’m personally staying in my trades, even leveraged ones, because the current risk-reward is still favorable. The only point of caution mentioned—and this is my exit strategy too—is to look to sell when Bitcoin gets "high in relation to its trend rate," around that red box level. I don't see a significant drawdown coming unless we hit that blow-off top first; a 60-70% drop from here just doesn't make sense right now.

The most powerful idea for me, though, is how the presenter positioned Bitcoin against other assets. They argued that Bitcoin is the "hurdle rate" for our generation, just like the S&P 500 was for the previous one. When you measure the NASDAQ, S&P 500, or even home prices against Bitcoin, they are significantly down in Bitcoin terms. If I, as a young person, want to truly save and buy a house, the only way is to save in the asset that consistently outperforms everything else. For me, Bitcoin isn't just a trade or an investment—it’s money, and I need to hold the asset that doesn't get debased. So, I’ll continue to dollar-cost average and think with a 5-to-10-year time horizon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7FCu183Io4