Whales are back to hoarding Bitcoin

Despite the emergence of new factors such as the launch of the Bitcoin ETF and the return of Mt.Gox funds, the current cycle surprisingly closely mirrors previous price movements. In particular, the returns from the beginning of the cycle amount to the same 250% as in the periods of 2015-18 or 2018-22.

This applies with minor differences to the price change from the date of the halving.

The cyclical model indicates an exaggerated public focus on the news background. When a new price record is set, whales and long-term holders naturally rush to lock in profits, which cools the market.

After a noticeable correction, they return to accumulation. As noted by the analytical agency CryptoQuant, whales are currently buying at the fastest pace since April 2023, increasing reserves by 6.3% per month.

Accumulation wallets (two or more incoming and no outgoing transactions; excluding miner, exchange, and ETF addresses) also show excellent growth dynamics. In the last 30 days, they have accumulated 85,000 BTC, which outweighs the annual pressure from the same Mt.Gox. As CryptoQuant head Ki Young Ju emphasized, "While some are panic selling, others are buying."

According to previous cycles, it may take several more months to return to sustainable growth. This aligns well with the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which is not expected to pivot before the September meeting. A reduction in the key interest rate in the long term weakens the position of the US dollar and increases interest in a wide range of risky assets, including Bitcoin.

As Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote in a note to investors on July 10, "The recent pullback is a gift of fate." In his assessment, Bitcoin has a high chance of rising to $100,000 in the second half of the year.

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